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Bentonit Ijevan vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Bentonit Ijevan
Bentonit Ijevan
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
9/17/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentonit Ijevan67%
×Draw16%
Nikarm17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentonit Ijevan
2.88
Nikarm
1.42

Bentonit Ijevan creates 103% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bentonit Ijevan
1.48
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Bentonit Ijevan
2.11
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Bentonit Ijevan+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentonit Ijevan ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bentonit Ijevan or draw
83%
Bentonit Ijevan or Nikarm
84%
Draw or Nikarm
33%

Winning margin

Bentonit Ijevan wins by 2+
46%
Nikarm wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bentonit Ijevan 1+ goals
94%
Bentonit Ijevan 2+ goals
78%
Bentonit Ijevan 3+ goals
54%
Nikarm 1+ goals
76%
Nikarm 2+ goals
41%
Nikarm 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bentonit Ijevan (draw refunded)
80%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentonit Ijevan at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentonit Ijevan attack 1.48 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 2.88

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Bentonit Ijevan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bentonit Ijevan scores more
67%
level
16%
Nikarm scores more
17%

Bentonit Ijevan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bentonit Ijevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Bentonit Ijevan 5–0 Nikarm

Bentonit Ijevan beat Nikarm 5-0 in First League on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.