Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bentleigh Greens vs Sunshine Georgies — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
3/21/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens43%
×Draw23%
Sunshine Georgies33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.71
Sunshine Georgies
1.47

Bentleigh Greens creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
Sunshine Georgies
1.85

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.08
Sunshine Georgies
1.50

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Sunshine Georgies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
67%
Bentleigh Greens or Sunshine Georgies
77%
Draw or Sunshine Georgies
57%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
23%
Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
82%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
51%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
24%
Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
77%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
43%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
57%
Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Sunshine Georgies away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sunshine Georgies attack 1.85 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
43%
level
23%
Sunshine Georgies scores more
33%

Bentleigh Greens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs Sunshine Georgies

Bentleigh Greens beat Sunshine Georgies 3-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.