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Bentleigh Greens vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
3 – 1
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
6/2/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 15Kingston Heath Soccer Complex (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bentleigh Greens47%
×Draw24%
Pascoe Vale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.64
Pascoe Vale
1.23

Bentleigh Greens creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.42
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.60
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
71%
Bentleigh Greens or Pascoe Vale
76%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
53%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
24%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
81%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
49%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
23%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
71%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
35%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
62%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.64

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
47%
level
24%
Pascoe Vale scores more
29%

Bentleigh Greens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs Pascoe Vale

Bentleigh Greens beat Pascoe Vale 3-1 in Victoria NPL on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex (Melbourne).