Bentleigh Greens 1–2 Northcote City: Result & Stats

Bentleigh Greens

FT

1 – 2

Northcote City

3/8/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens49%

×Draw23%

Northcote City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bentleigh GreensExpected goals in this matchNorthcote City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.40

Bentleigh Greens

1.88

Northcote City

1.40

Bentleigh Greens creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

1.92

creates per match

1.72

1.08

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.92

Northcote City

1.72

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.08

Northcote City

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Northcote City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw

71%

Bentleigh Greens or Northcote City

77%

Draw or Northcote City

51%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

27%

Northcote City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

85%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

56%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

29%

Northcote City 1+ goals

75%

Northcote City 2+ goals

41%

Northcote City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

63%

Northcote City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.88

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more

49%

level

23%

Northcote City scores more

29%

Bentleigh Greens at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff