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Bentleigh Greens vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Moreland City
Moreland City
5/27/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 15Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens58%
×Draw19%
Moreland City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
2.41
Moreland City
1.46

Bentleigh Greens creates 65% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.44
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.61
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
77%
Bentleigh Greens or Moreland City
81%
Draw or Moreland City
42%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
37%
Moreland City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
91%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
69%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
43%
Moreland City 1+ goals
77%
Moreland City 2+ goals
43%
Moreland City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
72%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.44 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.41

Moreland City attack 1.31 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
58%
level
19%
Moreland City scores more
23%

Bentleigh Greens at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs Moreland City

Moreland City beat Bentleigh Greens 3-1 in Victoria NPL on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.