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Bentleigh Greens vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
5/31/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 16Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bentleigh Greens42%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Victory II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
Melbourne Victory II
1.75

Bentleigh Greens creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
Melbourne Victory II
2.42

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.08
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
64%
Bentleigh Greens or Melbourne Victory II
78%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
58%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
23%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
85%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
57%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
30%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
54%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.42 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
42%
level
22%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
36%

Bentleigh Greens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bentleigh Greens 0–0 Melbourne Victory II

Bentleigh Greens and Melbourne Victory II drew 0-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.