Bentleigh Greens 2–1 Melbourne Srbija

Bentleigh Greens

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Melbourne Srbija

3/1/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 4Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bentleigh Greens49%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Srbija27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bentleigh GreensExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Srbija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.23

Bentleigh Greens

1.72

Melbourne Srbija

1.23

Bentleigh Greens creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

1.92

creates per match

1.39

1.08

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.92

Melbourne Srbija

1.39

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.08

Melbourne Srbija

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Melbourne Srbija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw

73%

Bentleigh Greens or Melbourne Srbija

76%

Draw or Melbourne Srbija

51%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

26%

Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

82%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

51%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

25%

Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals

71%

Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals

35%

Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

64%

Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.72

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more

49%

level

24%

Melbourne Srbija scores more

27%

Bentleigh Greens at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff