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Bentleigh Greens vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
6/10/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 17Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bentleigh Greens43%
×Draw24%
Melbourne Knights33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.69
Melbourne Knights
1.45

Bentleigh Greens creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.42
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.60
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
67%
Bentleigh Greens or Melbourne Knights
76%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
57%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
23%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
82%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
50%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
24%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
42%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
57%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
43%
level
24%
Melbourne Knights scores more
33%

Bentleigh Greens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs Melbourne Knights

Bentleigh Greens beat Melbourne Knights 2-1 in Victoria NPL on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.