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Bentleigh Greens vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
2 – 0
Kingston City
Kingston City
3/22/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens52%
×Draw22%
Kingston City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
2.04
Kingston City
1.41

Bentleigh Greens creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.08
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
73%
Bentleigh Greens or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
48%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
30%
Kingston City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
87%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
60%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
33%
Kingston City 1+ goals
76%
Kingston City 2+ goals
41%
Kingston City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
66%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
52%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
27%

Bentleigh Greens at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bentleigh Greens 2–0 Kingston City

Bentleigh Greens beat Kingston City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.