Bentín Tacna Heroica vs UCV Moquegua — Segunda División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Bentín Tacna Heroica49%
UCV Moquegua26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bentín Tacna Heroica creates 48% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bentín Tacna Heroica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bentín Tacna Heroica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches
UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bentín Tacna Heroica attack 1.81 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54
UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + Bentín Tacna Heroica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Bentín Tacna Heroica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Bentín Tacna Heroica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
UCV Moquegua substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Union Comercio
Deportivo LlacuabambaUCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El PirataBentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Academia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2
Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bentín Tacna Heroica host UCV Moquegua on Sunday, 20 July 2025 at 20:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Bentín Tacna Heroica vs UCV Moquegua
Bentín Tacna Heroica and UCV Moquegua drew 2-2 in Segunda División on July 20, 2025.
Goals: J. Garcia (8'), S. Enciso (58'), N. Chavez (72'), A. Osorio (81').
The match was played at Estadio Jorge Basadre in Tacna.