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Benkovski Isperih vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
CANC
12:00
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
11/4/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 13Gradski Stadion Isperih

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Benkovski Isperih79%
×Draw12%
Sportist G.Toshevo8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
3.20
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.99

Benkovski Isperih creates 223% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 40 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
92%
Benkovski Isperih or Sportist G.Toshevo
88%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
21%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
96%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
82%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
60%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
63%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
26%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
90%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.20

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
79%
level
12%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
8%

Benkovski Isperih at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benkovski Isperih vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Match Preview

Benkovski Isperih face Sportist G.Toshevo on November 4, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benkovski Isperih host Sportist G.Toshevo at Gradski Stadion Isperih.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.