Benkovski Isperih 2–0 Dunav ot Ruse II

Benkovski Isperih

FT

2 – 0

Dunav ot Ruse II

8/20/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 2Gradski Stadion Isperih

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Benkovski Isperih71%

×Draw17%

Dunav ot Ruse II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benkovski IsperihExpected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.98

Benkovski Isperih

2.56

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.98

Benkovski Isperih creates 161% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

2.27

creates per match

0.74

1.23

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih

2.27

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih

1.23

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw

88%

Benkovski Isperih or Dunav ot Ruse II

83%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

29%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+

49%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals

92%

Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals

72%

Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals

46%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

62%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

26%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)

85%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.56

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more

71%

level

17%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

12%

Benkovski Isperih at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff