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Benkovski Byala vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
13:00
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
10/18/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala69%
×Draw16%
Sportist G.Toshevo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
2.75
Sportist G.Toshevo
1.19

Benkovski Byala creates 131% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
86%
Benkovski Byala or Sportist G.Toshevo
84%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
31%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
49%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
93%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
75%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
51%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
70%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
33%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
83%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
69%
level
16%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
14%

Benkovski Byala at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benkovski Byala vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Match Preview

Benkovski Byala face Sportist G.Toshevo on October 18, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benkovski Byala host Sportist G.Toshevo at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.