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Benkovski Byala vs Spartak Varna — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
FT
0 – 4
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
9/23/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 5Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala17%
×Draw20%
Spartak Varna64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.03
Spartak Varna
2.20

Spartak Varna creates 114% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Spartak Varna
2.77

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Spartak Varna
0.69

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
36%
Benkovski Byala or Spartak Varna
80%
Draw or Spartak Varna
83%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
6%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
64%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
28%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
9%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
89%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
64%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
21%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Spartak Varna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.03

Spartak Varna attack 2.77 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
17%
level
20%
Spartak Varna scores more
64%

Spartak Varna at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benkovski Byala vs Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Benkovski Byala 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala).