Benkovski Byala 1–1 Septemvri Tervel

Benkovski Byala

FT

1 – 1

Septemvri Tervel

11/4/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 11Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala27%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Tervel48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benkovski ByalaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Tervel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.61

Benkovski Byala

1.13

Septemvri Tervel

1.61

Septemvri Tervel creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 104 away

1.37

creates per match

1.60

1.63

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Benkovski Byala

1.37

Septemvri Tervel

1.60

allows per match

Benkovski Byala

1.63

Septemvri Tervel

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Septemvri Tervel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw

52%

Benkovski Byala or Septemvri Tervel

75%

Draw or Septemvri Tervel

73%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+

10%

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals

68%

Benkovski Byala 2+ goals

31%

Benkovski Byala 3+ goals

11%

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

80%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

48%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)

36%

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more

27%

level

25%

Septemvri Tervel scores more

48%

Septemvri Tervel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff