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Benkovski Byala vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
15:00
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
8/9/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 1Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala24%
×Draw23%
Ludogorets III54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.14
Ludogorets III
1.84

Ludogorets III creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
46%
Benkovski Byala or Ludogorets III
77%
Draw or Ludogorets III
76%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
9%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
68%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
32%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
11%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
84%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
55%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
30%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
24%
level
23%
Ludogorets III scores more
54%

Ludogorets III at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Benkovski Byala host Ludogorets III

August 9, 2020: Benkovski Byala take on Ludogorets III in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Benkovski Byala host Ludogorets III at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.