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Benkovski Byala vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
00:00
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
8/18/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 2Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Benkovski Byala49%
×Draw24%
Kaliakra 192327%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.65
Kaliakra 1923
1.15

Benkovski Byala creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
73%
Benkovski Byala or Kaliakra 1923
76%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
51%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
26%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
81%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
49%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
23%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
68%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
32%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
65%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
49%
level
24%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
27%

Benkovski Byala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Benkovski Byala host Kaliakra 1923

August 18, 2019: Benkovski Byala take on Kaliakra 1923 in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Benkovski Byala host Kaliakra 1923 at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.