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Benkovski Byala vs Dunav Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
15:00
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
8/23/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 3Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala24%
×Draw22%
Dunav Ruse54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.28
Dunav Ruse
2.00

Dunav Ruse creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Dunav Ruse
2.37

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Dunav Ruse
1.19

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
46%
Benkovski Byala or Dunav Ruse
78%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
76%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
10%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
72%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
37%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
14%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
86%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
59%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
31%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dunav Ruse attack 2.37 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
24%
level
22%
Dunav Ruse scores more
54%

Dunav Ruse at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benkovski Byala vs Dunav Ruse — Match Preview

Benkovski Byala face Dunav Ruse on August 23, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benkovski Byala host Dunav Ruse at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.