Benin 1–0 Botswana: Result & Stats

Benin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Botswana

Y. Roche 28'

12/27/2025

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Olympique Annexe Complexe Sportif Prince Abdellah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Benin61%

×Draw28%

Botswana11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeninExpected goals in this matchBotswana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.39

Benin

1.35

Botswana

0.39

Benin creates 246% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.71

creates per match

0.20

0.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Benin

0.71

Botswana

0.20

allows per match

Benin

0.57

Botswana

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benin+0.00on par

Botswana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benin ↓

Botswana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Benin or draw

89%

Benin or Botswana

72%

Draw or Botswana

39%

Winning margin

Benin wins by 2+

31%

Botswana wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Benin 1+ goals

74%

Benin 2+ goals

39%

Benin 3+ goals

15%

Botswana 1+ goals

32%

Botswana 2+ goals

6%

Botswana 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Benin (draw refunded)

85%

Botswana (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benin at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Botswana away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benin attack 0.71 + Botswana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Botswana attack 0.20 + Benin defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Benin scores more

61%

level

28%

Botswana scores more

11%

Benin at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Benin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

O. Verdon

Benin · D

8.5

Match Events

13'

28'

44'

46'

46'

G. Baruti← L. Ratshukudu

46'

M. Cooper← L. Ditsele

54'

A. Samadou← S. D'Almeida

59'

T. Sesinyi← O. Kebatho

82'

R. Aloko← A. Tosin

85'

Tamimou Ouorou

86'

T. Maponda← G. Mohutsiwa

90+4'

Rodolfo Aloko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeninBotswana

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots5

1Corners1

19Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots5

4On Target1

6Off Target3

0Blocked1

9Inside Box3

1Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

508Total Passes465

432Accurate Passes383

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1