Benigànim vs Intercity: Preview & Prediction

Benigànim

CANC

22:00

Intercity

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Benigànim21%

×Draw26%

Intercity53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenigànimExpected goals in this matchIntercity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.50

Benigànim

0.82

Intercity

1.50

Intercity creates 83% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

0.91

creates per match

1.44

1.57

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Benigànim

0.91

Intercity

1.44

allows per match

Benigànim

1.57

Intercity

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benigànim+0.00on par

Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benigànim ↓

Intercity →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Benigànim or draw

47%

Benigànim or Intercity

74%

Draw or Intercity

79%

Winning margin

Benigànim wins by 2+

Intercity wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Benigànim 1+ goals

56%

Benigànim 2+ goals

20%

Benigànim 3+ goals

Intercity 1+ goals

78%

Intercity 2+ goals

44%

Intercity 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Benigànim (draw refunded)

28%

Intercity (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Benigànim at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Intercity away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Benigànim attack 0.91 + Intercity defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Intercity attack 1.44 + Benigànim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Benigànim scores more

21%

level

26%

Intercity scores more

53%

Intercity at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benigànim vs Intercity — Match Preview

Benigànim face Intercity on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benigànim host Intercity at Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Benigànim vs Intercity — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Benigànim vs Intercity — Match Preview