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Benigànim vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Benigànim
Benigànim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benigànim33%
×Draw26%
Castellón II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benigànim
1.23
Castellón II
1.40

Castellón II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 67 away

creates per match

Benigànim
0.91
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Benigànim
1.57
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Benigànim+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benigànim ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Benigànim or draw
59%
Benigànim or Castellón II
74%
Draw or Castellón II
67%

Winning margin

Benigànim wins by 2+
14%
Castellón II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Benigànim 1+ goals
71%
Benigànim 2+ goals
35%
Benigànim 3+ goals
13%
Castellón II 1+ goals
75%
Castellón II 2+ goals
41%
Castellón II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Benigànim (draw refunded)
45%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benigànim at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benigànim attack 0.91 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Benigànim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benigànim scores more
33%
level
26%
Castellón II scores more
41%

Castellón II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benigànim vs Castellón II

Benigànim and Castellón II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella in Benigànim.