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Benigànim vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Benigànim
Benigànim
CANC
00:00
Alzira
Alzira
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 35Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benigànim30%
×Draw28%
Alzira42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benigànim
1.04
Alzira
1.29

Alzira creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Benigànim
0.91
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Benigànim
1.57
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Benigànim+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benigànim ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Benigànim or draw
58%
Benigànim or Alzira
72%
Draw or Alzira
70%

Winning margin

Benigànim wins by 2+
11%
Alzira wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Benigànim 1+ goals
65%
Benigànim 2+ goals
28%
Benigànim 3+ goals
9%
Alzira 1+ goals
72%
Alzira 2+ goals
37%
Alzira 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Benigànim (draw refunded)
42%
Alzira (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benigànim at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benigànim attack 0.91 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Alzira attack 1.02 + Benigànim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benigànim scores more
30%
level
28%
Alzira scores more
42%

Alzira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benigànim vs Alzira — Match Preview

Benigànim face Alzira on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benigànim host Alzira at Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.