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Benicarló vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Benicarló
Benicarló
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saguntino
Saguntino
11/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Estadio Angel Pichi Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Benicarló31%
×Draw32%
Saguntino37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benicarló
0.86
Saguntino
0.98

Saguntino creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

creates per match

Benicarló
0.64
Saguntino
1.18

allows per match

Benicarló
0.79
Saguntino
1.09

finishing

Benicarló+0.00on par
Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benicarló ↓

Saguntino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Benicarló or draw
63%
Benicarló or Saguntino
68%
Draw or Saguntino
69%

Winning margin

Benicarló wins by 2+
10%
Saguntino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benicarló 1+ goals
58%
Benicarló 2+ goals
21%
Benicarló 3+ goals
6%
Saguntino 1+ goals
62%
Saguntino 2+ goals
26%
Saguntino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benicarló (draw refunded)
45%
Saguntino (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benicarló at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benicarló attack 0.64 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Benicarló defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Benicarló scores more
31%
level
32%
Saguntino scores more
37%

Saguntino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Benicarló 0–1 Saguntino

Saguntino beat Benicarló 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Angel Pichi Alonso in Benicarló.