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Benicarló vs Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Benicarló
Benicarló
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Roda
Roda
2/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Estadio Angel Pichi Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Benicarló31%
×Draw35%
Roda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benicarló
0.79
Roda
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 111 away

creates per match

Benicarló
0.64
Roda
0.94

allows per match

Benicarló
0.79
Roda
0.95

finishing

Benicarló+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benicarló ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Benicarló or draw
65%
Benicarló or Roda
65%
Draw or Roda
69%

Winning margin

Benicarló wins by 2+
10%
Roda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Benicarló 1+ goals
55%
Benicarló 2+ goals
19%
Benicarló 3+ goals
5%
Roda 1+ goals
58%
Roda 2+ goals
21%
Roda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benicarló (draw refunded)
47%
Roda (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benicarló at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benicarló attack 0.64 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Roda attack 0.94 + Benicarló defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Benicarló scores more
31%
level
35%
Roda scores more
35%

Roda at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Benicarló 0–2 Roda

Roda beat Benicarló 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Angel Pichi Alonso in Benicarló.