Benicarló 0–1 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Benicarló

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hércules II

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 9Camp de futbol de Benicarló

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Benicarló37%

×Draw34%

Hércules II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenicarlóExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.80

Benicarló

0.93

Hércules II

0.80

Benicarló creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

0.64

creates per match

0.81

0.79

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Benicarló

0.64

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Benicarló

0.79

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benicarló+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benicarló ↓

Hércules II →

0–018%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Benicarló or draw

70%

Benicarló or Hércules II

66%

Draw or Hércules II

63%

Winning margin

Benicarló wins by 2+

13%

Hércules II wins by 2+

Team goals

Benicarló 1+ goals

61%

Benicarló 2+ goals

24%

Benicarló 3+ goals

Hércules II 1+ goals

55%

Hércules II 2+ goals

19%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Benicarló (draw refunded)

55%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Benicarló at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Benicarló attack 0.64 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.93

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Benicarló defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Benicarló scores more

37%

level

34%

Hércules II scores more

30%

Benicarló at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benicarló will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff