Béni-Khalled 1–1 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

Béni-Khalled

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

JS Kairouanaise

C. Chaar 85'

H. Hamzaoui 45+1'

5/23/2012

League #202 · Round 21Stade Habib Tajouri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Béni-Khalled35%

×Draw27%

JS Kairouanaise38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Béni-KhalledExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.28

Béni-Khalled

1.23

JS Kairouanaise

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

1.67

0.90

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Béni-Khalled

0.80

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

allows per match

Béni-Khalled

0.90

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Béni-Khalled+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Béni-Khalled ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Béni-Khalled or draw

62%

Béni-Khalled or JS Kairouanaise

73%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

65%

Winning margin

Béni-Khalled wins by 2+

15%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Béni-Khalled 1+ goals

71%

Béni-Khalled 2+ goals

35%

Béni-Khalled 3+ goals

13%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

72%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

37%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Béni-Khalled (draw refunded)

48%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Béni-Khalled at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Béni-Khalled attack 0.80 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.67 + Béni-Khalled defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Béni-Khalled scores more

35%

level

27%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

38%

JS Kairouanaise at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

H. Hamzaoui

68'

N. Youssefi← Ahmed Abdelkader

70'

73'

75'

78'

85'

Béni-Khalled

JS

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

70'▲M. Charni←▼M. Amara

73'▲B. Ghannem←▼A. Dhaou

75'▲C. Chaar←▼B. Mbengue

Béni-Khalled substitutes

CharniGhannemChaar

68'▲N. Youssefi←▼Ahmed Abdelkader

78'▲A. Abdi←▼M. Troudi

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

YoussefiAbdi