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Bengaluru vs Paro — AFC Cup 2018

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Paro
Paro
2/12/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundSree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bengaluru84%
×Draw9%
Paro7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
4.10
Paro
1.20

Bengaluru creates 242% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
3.20
Paro
2.00

allows per match

Bengaluru
0.40
Paro
5.00

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
93%
Bengaluru or Paro
91%
Draw or Paro
16%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
69%
Paro wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
98%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
90%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
75%
Paro 1+ goals
70%
Paro 2+ goals
34%
Paro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
93%
Paro (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Paro away — creates 2.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 3.20 + Paro defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.10

Paro attack 2.00 + Bengaluru defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Bengaluru scores more
84%
level
9%
Paro scores more
7%

Bengaluru at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Bengaluru 9–1 Paro

Bengaluru beat Paro 9-1 in AFC Cup on February 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.