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Bengaluru vs Minerva Punjab — Indian Super League 2019

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
11/30/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 8Sree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bengaluru44%
×Draw26%
Minerva Punjab31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
1.48
Minerva Punjab
1.20

Bengaluru creates 23% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.46
Minerva Punjab
1.33

allows per match

Bengaluru
1.06
Minerva Punjab
1.50

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Minerva Punjab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
69%
Bengaluru or Minerva Punjab
74%
Draw or Minerva Punjab
56%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
21%
Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
77%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
43%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
19%
Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
70%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
34%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
59%
Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 71 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.46 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Minerva Punjab attack 1.33 + Bengaluru defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bengaluru scores more
44%
level
26%
Minerva Punjab scores more
31%

Bengaluru at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indian Super League: Bengaluru 3–3 Minerva Punjab

Bengaluru and Minerva Punjab drew 3-3 in Indian Super League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.