Bengaluru 2–1 Maziya: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Bengaluru

Pens

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maziya

2/26/2020

AFC Cup · Play-off RoundSree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bengaluru81%

×Draw13%

Maziya7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BengaluruExpected goals in this matchMaziya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.82

0.70

Bengaluru

2.82

Maziya

0.70

Bengaluru creates 303% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

3.20

creates per match

1.00

0.40

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Bengaluru

3.20

Maziya

1.00

allows per match

Bengaluru

0.40

Maziya

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par

Maziya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Maziya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw

93%

Bengaluru or Maziya

87%

Draw or Maziya

19%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+

60%

Maziya wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals

94%

Bengaluru 2+ goals

77%

Bengaluru 3+ goals

52%

Maziya 1+ goals

50%

Maziya 2+ goals

16%

Maziya 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)

92%

Maziya (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Maziya away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 3.20 + Maziya defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.82

Maziya attack 1.00 + Bengaluru defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Bengaluru scores more

81%

level

13%

Maziya scores more

7%

Bengaluru at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff