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Bengaluru vs Jamshedpur — Indian Super League 2025

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
Alberto Noguera 82', 57'
Édgar Méndez 43'
2/9/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 21Sree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bengaluru44%
×Draw26%
Jamshedpur30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
1.45
Jamshedpur
1.14

Bengaluru creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.43
Jamshedpur
1.35

allows per match

Bengaluru
0.93
Jamshedpur
1.47

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Jamshedpur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
70%
Bengaluru or Jamshedpur
74%
Draw or Jamshedpur
56%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
21%
Jamshedpur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
77%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
42%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
18%
Jamshedpur 1+ goals
68%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
32%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
60%
Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Jamshedpur away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.43 + Jamshedpur defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jamshedpur attack 1.35 + Bengaluru defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bengaluru scores more
44%
level
26%
Jamshedpur scores more
30%

Bengaluru at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Alberto NogueraBengaluruBengaluru · M
9.2

Match Events

3'
Rahul Bheke
12'
Sunil ChhetriMissed penalty
43'
Édgar Méndez↳ S. Chhetri
46'
A. Jadhav← S. Das
56'
Mohammed Sanan K
57'
Alberto Noguera
62'
S. Sarangi← N. Barla
62'
R. Das← M. Sanan
69'
N. Bhutia← M. Salah
72'
S. Doungel← I. Khan
82'
Alberto Noguera
87'
L. Fanai← R. Williams
90+5'
K. Singh← S. Chhetri
90+5'
V. Venkatesh← Alberto Noguera

Possession

54%Bengaluru

Shots

18Bengaluru

Pass accuracy

52%Bengaluru

Statistics

BengaluruJamshedpur
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots14
11Corners7
11Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots14
7On Target3
4Off Target3
7Blocked8
12Inside Box8
6Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
331Total Passes280
228Accurate Passes176
69%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Indian Super League: Bengaluru 3–0 Jamshedpur

Bengaluru beat Jamshedpur 3-0 in Indian Super League on February 9, 2025.

Goals: Édgar Méndez (43'), Alberto Noguera (57', 82').

Bengaluru controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.