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Bengaluru vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyradvanced
8/22/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsSree Kanteerava Stadium (Bangalore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bengaluru70%
×Draw17%
Altyn Asyr13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
2.53
Altyn Asyr
0.99

Bengaluru creates 156% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
3.20
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Bengaluru
0.40
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
87%
Bengaluru or Altyn Asyr
83%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
30%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
48%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
92%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
71%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
46%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
63%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
26%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
85%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 3.20 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.53

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Bengaluru defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bengaluru scores more
70%
level
17%
Altyn Asyr scores more
13%

Bengaluru at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bengaluru vs Altyn Asyr

Altyn Asyr beat Bengaluru 3-2 in AFC Cup on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium (Bangalore).