Benfica 5–0 Vilafranquense: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Vilafranquense

12/13/2020

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Benfica57%

×Draw20%

Vilafranquense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchVilafranquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.37

Benfica

2.23

Vilafranquense

1.37

Benfica creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.88

creates per match

1.86

0.88

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Benfica

2.88

Vilafranquense

1.86

allows per match

Benfica

0.88

Vilafranquense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Vilafranquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

77%

Benfica or Vilafranquense

80%

Draw or Vilafranquense

43%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

35%

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

89%

Benfica 2+ goals

65%

Benfica 3+ goals

38%

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

75%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

40%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

71%

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + Vilafranquense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vilafranquense attack 1.86 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Benfica scores more

57%

level

20%

Vilafranquense scores more

23%

Benfica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff