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Benfica vs Tirsense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica
Benficaadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tirsense
Tirsense
4/23/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Benfica48%
×Draw22%
Tirsense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.94
Tirsense
1.51

Benfica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.88
Tirsense
2.14

allows per match

Benfica
0.88
Tirsense
1.00

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Tirsense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Tirsense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
70%
Benfica or Tirsense
78%
Draw or Tirsense
52%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
27%
Tirsense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
86%
Benfica 2+ goals
58%
Benfica 3+ goals
30%
Tirsense 1+ goals
78%
Tirsense 2+ goals
44%
Tirsense 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
61%
Tirsense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Tirsense away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + Tirsense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tirsense attack 2.14 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benfica scores more
48%
level
22%
Tirsense scores more
30%

Benfica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Tirsense

Benfica beat Tirsense 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.