Liverpool 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

Roberto Firmino 76'

J. Allen 35'

5/8/2016

Premier League · Round 37Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Liverpool63%

×Draw21%

Watford16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

Liverpool

2.00

Watford

0.90

Liverpool creates 122% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 112 away

2.21

creates per match

0.96

0.84

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Liverpool

2.21

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Liverpool

0.84

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

84%

Liverpool or Watford

79%

Draw or Watford

37%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

38%

Watford wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

86%

Liverpool 2+ goals

59%

Liverpool 3+ goals

32%

Watford 1+ goals

59%

Watford 2+ goals

23%

Watford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

79%

Watford (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 198 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.21 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Watford attack 0.96 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Liverpool scores more

63%

level

21%

Watford scores more

16%

Liverpool at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

M. Škrtel

Liverpool · D

8.2

Match Events

35'

J. Allen↳ C. Benteke

53'

A. Guédioura← Mario Suárez

57'

S. Berghuis← José Jurado

59'

Miguel Britos

61'

Roberto Firmino← Philippe Coutinho

63'

Jon Flanagan

69'

N. Amrabat← A. Abdi

73'

Steven Berghuis

76'

Roberto Firmino↳ S. Ojo

78'

C. Brannagan← S. Ojo

88'

C. Randall← Alberto Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWatford

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots14

8Corners8

10Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots14

5On Target3

8Off Target8

6Blocked3

13Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

563Total Passes271

479Accurate Passes193

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1