Benfica 0–1 Shao Jiang: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shao Jiang

6/22/2025

Primeira Divisão · Championship Round - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Benfica30%

×Draw18%

Shao Jiang52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchShao Jiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.77

Benfica

2.12

Shao Jiang

2.77

Shao Jiang creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

3.39

creates per match

4.31

1.24

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Benfica

3.39

Shao Jiang

4.31

allows per match

Benfica

1.24

Shao Jiang

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Shao Jiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

48%

Benfica or Shao Jiang

82%

Draw or Shao Jiang

70%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

16%

Shao Jiang wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

88%

Benfica 2+ goals

62%

Benfica 3+ goals

35%

Shao Jiang 1+ goals

94%

Shao Jiang 2+ goals

76%

Shao Jiang 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

37%

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Benfica scores more

30%

level

18%

Shao Jiang scores more

52%

Shao Jiang at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff