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Benfica vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
10/27/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 9Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Benfica66%
×Draw20%
Rio Ave13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.00
Rio Ave
0.76

Benfica creates 163% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.42
Rio Ave
0.68

allows per match

Benfica
0.83
Rio Ave
1.57

finishing

Benfica+0.36scores more
Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
87%
Benfica or Rio Ave
80%
Draw or Rio Ave
34%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
41%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
86%
Benfica 2+ goals
59%
Benfica 3+ goals
32%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
53%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
18%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
83%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.42 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Benfica defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Benfica scores more
66%
level
20%
Rio Ave scores more
13%

Benfica at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Benfica 5–0 Rio Ave

Benfica beat Rio Ave 5-0 in Primeira Liga on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.