Benfica vs Rio Ave — Taça de Portugal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Benfica56%
Rio Ave24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Benfica creates 60% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Benfica ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Benfica at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches
Rio Ave away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Benfica attack 2.87 + Rio Ave defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.30
Rio Ave attack 2.09 + Benfica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Benfica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Benfica host Rio Ave on Tuesday, 14 January 2020 at 21:15. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Taça de Portugal: Benfica 3–2 Rio Ave
Benfica beat Rio Ave 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on January 14, 2020.
Goals: Lucas Piazon (4'), F. Cervi (13'), M. Taremi (30'), H. Seferović (64', 71').
The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.