Benfica 2–3 Qarabag: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.12

Benfica

2.56

Qarabag

1.12

Benfica creates 129% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

0.81

1.43

allows per match

3.37

creates per match

Benfica

1.75

Qarabag

0.81

allows per match

Benfica

1.43

Qarabag

3.37

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Benfica-0.18scores less

Qarabag+0.39scores more

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

85%

Benfica or Qarabag

83%

Draw or Qarabag

32%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

46%

Qarabag wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

92%

Benfica 2+ goals

72%

Benfica 3+ goals

46%

Qarabag 1+ goals

67%

Qarabag 2+ goals

31%

Qarabag 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

82%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Qarabag away — creates 0.81, concedes 3.37 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 1.75 + Qarabag defence 3.37 → ÷2 → 2.56

Qarabag attack 0.81 + Benfica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Benfica scores more

68%

level

17%

Qarabag scores more

15%

Benfica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Barrenechea↳ G. Sudakov

16'

V. Pavlidis

30'

Leandro Andrade↳ C. Duran

48'

C. Duran↳ M. Jankovic

66'

E. Addai← Leandro Andrade

70'

F. Ivanovic← F. Aursnes

70'

G. Prestianni← A. Schjelderup

77'

O. Kashchuk← M. Jankovic

77'

T. Bayramov← E. Cafarquliyev

79'

L. Barreiro← R. Rios

79'

H. Araujo← V. Pavlidis

86'

O. Kashchuk↳ A. Zoubir

90'

M. Qurbanly← C. Duran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaQarabag

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots10

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.52

8Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target5

5Off Target3

6Blocked2

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

477Total Passes432

408Accurate Passes352

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.63Goals Prevented-0.63

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Offsides1