Benfica 4–1 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pacos Ferreira

Éverton 90+3'

Rafa Silva 87'

H. Seferović 81'

Álex Grimaldo 78'

Nuno Santos 52'

11/19/2021

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Benfica55%

×Draw21%

Pacos Ferreira24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.31

Benfica

2.06

Pacos Ferreira

1.31

Benfica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

2.88

creates per match

1.75

0.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Benfica

2.88

Pacos Ferreira

1.75

allows per match

Benfica

0.88

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

76%

Benfica or Pacos Ferreira

79%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

45%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

32%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

61%

Benfica 3+ goals

34%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

73%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

38%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

69%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Benfica scores more

55%

level

21%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

24%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Éverton

Benfica · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

Maracás

43'

João Pedro Silva

51'

V. Lazaro← N. Radonjić

52'

Nuno Santos

60'

Pizzi← André Almeida

60'

A. Taarabt← Gedson Fernandes

64'

A. Ibrahim← Luíz Carlos

70'

Rui Pires

74'

H. Seferović← D. Núñez

74'

Gonçalo Ramos← J. Weigl

75'

Juan Delgado

76'

Abbas Ibrahim

77'

Zé Uilton← Lucas Silva

78'

Álex Grimaldo

81'

H. Seferović

84'

Hélder Ferreira← Nuno Santos

84'

Denílson← J. Delgado

87'

Rafa Silva

90+3'

Éverton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaPacos

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots8

16Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots8

9On Target2

4Off Target4

7Blocked2

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

608Total Passes259

530Accurate Passes181

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides4