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Benfica vs Jia Hua — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jia Hua
Jia Hua
2/27/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Benfica44%
×Draw19%
Jia Hua37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.50
Jia Hua
2.28

Benfica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Jia Hua
3.32

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Jia Hua
1.60

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Jia Hua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
63%
Benfica or Jia Hua
81%
Draw or Jia Hua
56%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
26%
Jia Hua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
92%
Benfica 2+ goals
71%
Benfica 3+ goals
45%
Jia Hua 1+ goals
90%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
66%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
55%
Jia Hua (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Benfica scores more
44%
level
19%
Jia Hua scores more
37%

Benfica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Jia Hua

Benfica beat Jia Hua 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on February 27, 2026.