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Benfica vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Famalicao
Famalicao
1/17/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 18Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Benfica55%
×Draw24%
Famalicao21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.75
Famalicao
0.98

Benfica creates 79% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.38
Famalicao
1.18

allows per match

Benfica
0.78
Famalicao
1.12

finishing

Benfica+0.42scores more
Famalicao-0.37scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
79%
Benfica or Famalicao
76%
Draw or Famalicao
45%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
31%
Famalicao wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
83%
Benfica 2+ goals
52%
Benfica 3+ goals
25%
Famalicao 1+ goals
62%
Famalicao 2+ goals
26%
Famalicao 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
72%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.78 · 20 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.38 + Famalicao defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Famalicao attack 1.18 + Benfica defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Benfica scores more
55%
level
24%
Famalicao scores more
21%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Benfica 4–0 Famalicao

Benfica beat Famalicao 4-0 in Primeira Liga on January 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.