Benfica 2–0 Famalicao: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Famalicao

11/25/2023

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Benfica50%

×Draw22%

Famalicao28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchFamalicao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.41

Benfica

1.94

Famalicao

1.41

Benfica creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.88

creates per match

1.93

0.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Benfica

2.88

Famalicao

1.93

allows per match

Benfica

0.88

Famalicao

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Famalicao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

72%

Benfica or Famalicao

78%

Draw or Famalicao

50%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

28%

Famalicao wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

86%

Benfica 2+ goals

58%

Benfica 3+ goals

30%

Famalicao 1+ goals

76%

Famalicao 2+ goals

41%

Famalicao 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

64%

Famalicao (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + Famalicao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Famalicao attack 1.93 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benfica scores more

50%

level

22%

Famalicao scores more

28%

Benfica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff