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Benfica vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
CPK
CPK
3/21/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Benfica25%
×Draw17%
CPK57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.08
CPK
3.10

CPK creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
CPK
0.76

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
43%
Benfica or CPK
83%
Draw or CPK
75%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
13%
CPK wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
87%
Benfica 2+ goals
61%
Benfica 3+ goals
34%
CPK 1+ goals
95%
CPK 2+ goals
81%
CPK 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
31%
CPK (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 2.08

CPK attack 4.97 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Benfica scores more
25%
level
17%
CPK scores more
57%

CPK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica 0 – 7 CPK

CPK beat Benfica 7-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 21, 2026.