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Benfica vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
5/4/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Benfica55%
×Draw20%
Cheng Fung25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.38
Cheng Fung
1.56

Benfica creates 53% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
75%
Benfica or Cheng Fung
80%
Draw or Cheng Fung
45%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
35%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
91%
Benfica 2+ goals
68%
Benfica 3+ goals
42%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
79%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
46%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
69%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.38

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Benfica scores more
55%
level
20%
Cheng Fung scores more
25%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Cheng Fung

Benfica and Cheng Fung drew 0-0 in Primeira Divisão on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.