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Benfica vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aves
Aves
1/10/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 16Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Benfica71%
×Draw17%
Aves11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.31
Aves
0.78

Benfica creates 196% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.63
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Benfica
0.77
Aves
2.00

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
89%
Benfica or Aves
83%
Draw or Aves
29%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
48%
Aves wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
90%
Benfica 2+ goals
67%
Benfica 3+ goals
40%
Aves 1+ goals
54%
Aves 2+ goals
18%
Aves 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
87%
Aves (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Aves attack 0.79 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Benfica scores more
71%
level
17%
Aves scores more
11%

Benfica at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Benfica 2–1 Aves

Benfica beat Aves 2-1 in Primeira Liga on January 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.