Benfica 5–0 Arouca: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Benfica

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Arouca

C. Tengstedt 77'

Rafa 46', 42'

O. Kökçü 32' (pen)

Á. Di María 25' (pen)

5/12/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 33Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Benfica67%

×Draw19%

Arouca14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchArouca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.85

Benfica

2.15

Arouca

0.85

Benfica creates 153% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

2.42

creates per match

0.87

0.83

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Benfica

2.42

Arouca

0.87

allows per match

Benfica

0.83

Arouca

1.87

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Benfica+0.36scores more

Arouca+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Arouca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

86%

Benfica or Arouca

81%

Draw or Arouca

33%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

43%

Arouca wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

88%

Benfica 2+ goals

63%

Benfica 3+ goals

36%

Arouca 1+ goals

57%

Arouca 2+ goals

21%

Arouca 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

83%

Arouca (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.42 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.15

Arouca attack 0.87 + Benfica defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Benfica scores more

67%

level

19%

Arouca scores more

14%

Benfica at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Rafa

Benfica · F

9.3

Match Events

25'

Á. Di MaríaPenalty

28'

Francisco Montero

32'

O. KökçüPenalty

36'

Florentino Luís

42'

Rafa↳ F. Aursnes

46'

Rafa↳ Álvaro Fernández

50'

A. Trezza← Pedro Santos

50'

E. Kouassi← V. Morozov

59'

Ángel Di María

59'

David Simão

65'

Morato← António Silva

65'

Tiago Gouveia← Florentino

76'

B. Rollheiser← O. Kökçü

76'

C. Tengstedt← Á. Di María

76'

Oriol Busquets← David Simão

76'

Miguel Puche← Cristo González

77'

C. Tengstedt↳ Rafa

85'

João Rêgo← Rafa

85'

Y. Lawal← Jason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaArouca

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots5

5.28Expected Goals (xG)0.32

3Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots5

9On Target1

6Off Target3

4Blocked1

16Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

492Total Passes493

428Accurate Passes418

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1