Benfica 2–1 Arouca: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Arouca

Rafa Silva 90+3'

Jonas 42'

A. Bukia 19'

11/22/2018

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz) (Lisboa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Benfica45%

×Draw22%

Arouca33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchArouca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.67

Benfica

1.98

Arouca

1.67

Benfica creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

2.87

creates per match

2.54

0.80

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Benfica

2.87

Arouca

2.54

allows per match

Benfica

0.80

Arouca

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Arouca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

67%

Benfica or Arouca

78%

Draw or Arouca

55%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

25%

Arouca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

86%

Benfica 2+ goals

59%

Benfica 3+ goals

31%

Arouca 1+ goals

81%

Arouca 2+ goals

50%

Arouca 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

58%

Arouca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.87 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Arouca attack 2.54 + Benfica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Benfica scores more

45%

level

22%

Arouca scores more

33%

Benfica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Bukia

42'

Jonas

90+3'

Rafa Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff