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Benfica U23 vs Santa Clara U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Benfica U23
Benfica U23
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Santa Clara U23
Santa Clara U23advanced
Unknown 120+2' (pen)
J. P. Goncalves 80'
F. Silva 26'
F. Neto 8'
Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 89'
O. Miranda 90'
R. Mendes 14'
5/20/2026Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica U2358%
×Draw18%
Santa Clara U2323%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica U23
2.65
Santa Clara U23
1.65

Benfica U23 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benfica U23
2.63
Santa Clara U23
2.67

allows per match

Benfica U23
0.63
Santa Clara U23
2.67

finishing

Benfica U23+0.00on par
Santa Clara U23+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U23 ↓

Santa Clara U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Benfica U23 or draw
77%
Benfica U23 or Santa Clara U23
82%
Draw or Santa Clara U23
42%

Winning margin

Benfica U23 wins by 2+
38%
Santa Clara U23 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benfica U23 1+ goals
93%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
74%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
48%
Santa Clara U23 1+ goals
81%
Santa Clara U23 2+ goals
49%
Santa Clara U23 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
72%
Santa Clara U23 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U23 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Santa Clara U23 away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U23 attack 2.63 + Santa Clara U23 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.65

Santa Clara U23 attack 2.67 + Benfica U23 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Benfica U23 scores more
58%
level
18%
Santa Clara U23 scores more
23%

Benfica U23 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
F. Neto
14'
R. Mendes
26'
F. Silva
47'
80'
J. P. Goncalves
89'
90'
O. Miranda
120'
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica U23 3 – 3 Santa Clara U23

Benfica U23 and Santa Clara U23 drew 3-3 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 20, 2026.

Goals: F. Neto (8'), R. Mendes (14'), F. Silva (26'), J. P. Goncalves (80'), ? (89', 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen), O. Miranda (90').