Benfica U23 1–0 Estoril U23: Result & Stats

Benfica U23

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estoril U23

5/17/2022

Taça Revelação U23 · Semi-finalsCaixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Benfica U2351%

×Draw23%

Estoril U2326%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U23Expected goals in this matchEstoril U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.26

Benfica U23

1.86

Estoril U23

1.26

Benfica U23 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.63

creates per match

1.90

0.63

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Benfica U23

2.63

Estoril U23

1.90

allows per match

Benfica U23

0.63

Estoril U23

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U23+0.00on par

Estoril U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U23 ↓

Estoril U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Benfica U23 or draw

74%

Benfica U23 or Estoril U23

77%

Draw or Estoril U23

49%

Winning margin

Benfica U23 wins by 2+

29%

Estoril U23 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Benfica U23 1+ goals

84%

Benfica U23 2+ goals

55%

Benfica U23 3+ goals

28%

Estoril U23 1+ goals

72%

Estoril U23 2+ goals

36%

Estoril U23 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Benfica U23 (draw refunded)

66%

Estoril U23 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U23 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Estoril U23 away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U23 attack 2.63 + Estoril U23 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

Estoril U23 attack 1.90 + Benfica U23 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Benfica U23 scores more

51%

level

23%

Estoril U23 scores more

26%

Benfica U23 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff