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Benfica U19 vs Internazionale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Benfica U19
Benfica U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
11/29/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Benfica U1956%
×Draw21%
Internazionale U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica U19
2.17
Internazionale U19
1.36

Benfica U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Benfica U19
2.58
Internazionale U19
1.65

allows per match

Benfica U19
1.08
Internazionale U19
1.75

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par
Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw
76%
Benfica U19 or Internazionale U19
79%
Draw or Internazionale U19
44%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+
34%
Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals
89%
Benfica U19 2+ goals
64%
Benfica U19 3+ goals
36%
Internazionale U19 1+ goals
74%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
39%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Internazionale U19 attack 1.65 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Benfica U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
Internazionale U19 scores more
24%

Benfica U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Benfica U19 1–1 Internazionale U19

Benfica U19 and Internazionale U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.